At the Vegas Money Show, we thought that attendance was probably 30% higher than in the past. The event was packed! It was a great time and wonderful education opportunities for investors. If you didn’t make it out to Vegas, we’ll also be at the Money Show in San Fransisco later this year, so we look forward to seeing you there.
Let’s look at the news this week: the U.S. stock market has gone straight up for the last four weeks. On average, the stock market grows 10% per year, so far in the last few months we’ve seen 15% growth. We believe that the market is euphoric and dangerously ahead of itself. For 18 Tuesdays in a row the stock market has been up, and consumer confidence is surging. There is a wealth effect going on out there, even though the economy is not truly changing for the better.
Domestically, the Obama Administration’s recent scandals: Benghazi, AP wiretapping and the IRS targeting conservative groups, have been labeled the worst week in President Obama’s five years in office. Whatever your political opinions are on these matters, it’s good practice to see how these news items affect the stock markets. So far, President Obama’s approval rating is untouched, but it’s important to keep track of these kinds of trends and news stories.
In other economic news, Wal-Mart is having a disappointing year for sales, producer prices are going down and manufacturing looks rather dim right now in the U.S. However, with the Federal Reserve’s involvement in the markets, bad news is good news, and good news is good news, so it seems as though the stock market will just keep climbing for the foreseeable future. That said, risk is high, although we do have some investment ideas for you that we’ll talking about in the days to come.
This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
We saw a positive week overall in the U.S. markets, although not internationally. We are seeing some volatility and we see elevated risk levels in the world right now. This market is being driven by factors that are outside the normal realm of the markets.
It seems to us that investors are nervous right now because of all the unusual market activity. The most important thing to remember is that entry point is everything, so it’s wise to be cautious and watch for the right time to enter the markets. Markets correct and reset regularly, and when they do it’s wise to be prepared and on the lookout for opportunities.
As always, if you have questions about the state of the markets, email your concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com and we’ll do our best to answer them either individually or on the podcast.
This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
Right now, the Federal Reserve is in the market because the economy would not be able to grow without its involvement. We have a situation where interest rates are artificially low and so people are wondering what to do with their savings accounts and CDs – how do you make money on your savings without interest?
We continue to believe in the bond market for investors, but we know that it’s tempting to get into stocks because of dividend yields. Many investors are afraid of a bond market bubble and so hesitate to invest in bonds. However, we will say it again – we believe that bonds are the place to be for the majority of your portfolio.
Even if bonds do decline, you’re still getting an income stream and you are not exposed to risk and losses like in the (right now, very volatile) stock market. There are decent income streams available in the bond market, you have to be wise about what you buy and why. Also, you don’t have the downside risk in bonds that you have in the stock market.
For more information, please check out this excellent article and presentation by Jeff Gundlach. We think that he makes some excellent points and we encourage you to take this advice seriously. If you have questions about how to use bonds in your portfolio, please call our offices at 800-391-1118.
This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
Even with the backdrop of weak economic news, nothing seems to bring the market down. This is because of massive central bank influence, and it’s incredible to watch these organizations around the world as they buy bonds and continue various methods of quantitative easing.
“Sell in May” strategies are in effect right now, and it’s a fascinating phenomenon to watch, so keep your eyes open for that.
There’s not a lot out there today for growth, we’ll be honest. A lot of investors are hiding out in “safe” consumer stocks like Johnson & Johnson, Costco and Coca-Cola. However, one of these days the wind will change, and these companies are not good growth choices, because their recent growth is an emotional one, not a logical one.
These are just items to keep on a watch list and be aware of. For more information on these topics, we encourage you to attend one of Doug Fabian’s live presentations (there are two coming up in May 2013, you can see more information on those here) and continue listening to our podcast.
We want to stress the importance of saving for retirement. Look at your IRAs, 401ks, etc. and make a plan for your future. We mentioned last week that Americans aren’t saving enough in general, and this is a serious problem. Don’t be one of those who are left without options in retirement.
In the markets, emerging markets are not doing as well as developed countries. We think that the emerging markets will be an opportunity in the months to come, so we’ll be watching that closely. As you know, we believe that opportunities are coming, and now is not the time to get in too deep in the markets.
For the most part, we advise you to stick with your bond holdings and stay tuned for more information on investing.
The U.S. economy is still hanging in there – the best economy in the world amongst developed countries. This is the neighborhood that everyone wants to be in, and the U.S. is still the world leader, so we are still attracting capital. Despite that, we believe that there will be better opportunities to put money to work in U.S. market later this year, now is not the best time for investors. Emerging market opportunities might come up faster than U.S. investing, so keep an eye on that and listen to our podcast for more information in the coming weeks.
Also, bonds still doing OK. Keep an eye on bond market, but for now its doing well. Remember that bond market is safe from any big changes right now, because we cannot afford high interest rates at this time here in the U.S.
If you’d like to find out more about how we can help you and your money face upcoming challenges, act now by listening to the Monday Morning Market Outlook podcast, and then by giving us a call at 800-391-1118.
As always, email any investment questions or concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com. We want to help you make the best possible decision for your portfolio. This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
(For more information on this topic, check out our April issue of Successful Investing.)
This week, we got an email from a client, asking about taking on more risk in their portfolio. We believe that this is not the right time to be taking on more risk. The markets are risky right now and there is a lot of uncertainty out there.
However, this email got us thinking. Investors have a tendency to get into the market too late. For instance, many people got into real estate market too late in the recent boom a few years ago, which had unfortunate consequences in their portfolio. Here are some other common “unprepared investor” problems: They don’t know when to sell, they try to commit to an investment for the long-term and they sell at worst possible time when they get scared. In short, most unprepared investors get in too late and out too soon.
Don’t allow your portfolio to be another statistic of unprepared investing. This is not when you want to make a serious commitment to risk assets. Be careful out there, be safe and be prepared.
As always, email any investment questions or concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com. We want to help you make the best possible decision for your portfolio. This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
All the financial markets around the world are positive as of now, which continues the euphoric excitement on Wall Street about our recent stock market highs.
Here’s the good news: unemployment rate declined, U.S. dollar high, jobless claims fell, U.S. stock market high.
But, as always, there’s a flip side. Here’s the bad news: productivity falling in U.S., factory outputs declining in U.S., Europe’s economy is not doing well and we see recession in 60% of the world.
Even though, as our title indicates, many people are partying and feeling good about the stock market, we believe that the fundamentals are weak and that risk is still very high in the markets. Exercise extreme caution, and remember that equities are in an uptrend because of central bank interference in the markets. Better opportunities are still to come, so hang on for the ride and don’t get swept up into the “party”.
If you’d like to find out more about how we can help you and your money face upcoming challenges, act now by listening to the Monday Morning Market Outlook podcast, and then by giving us a call at 800-391-1118.
As always, email any investment questions or concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com. We want to help you make the best possible decision for your portfolio. This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
All of the investment themes we talked about back in January have not yet turned into opportunities, but we are watching for those buying opportunities to materialize. We encourage you to keep watching the Fabian Five and staying alert to changes in the market.
Your portfolio is important, and we want to help you manage risk and take advantage of opportunities. Please email us at askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com if you have any questions or concerns about your specific investing plans.
This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the complete broadcast.
