If you didn’t have time to listen to the teleseminar last week (which you can still download here), here is a “cheat sheet” of the key points from it.
We spent some time talking about the risk in the markets, and reminding everyone of the “European Blind Side“. We also mentioned the three key areas that we are expecting to invest this year, and expect to see grow into wise investments:
With these key strategies, an understanding of the risk in the market and a willingness to be patient and buy wisely when everyone else is panicking in the markets, we think that investors will have a lot of growth opportunities this year.
As always, here at Fabian Wealth Strategies we are available to discuss your portfolio and help you make these decisions in the best way possible. Call us at 800-391-1118 for your free portfolio review.
Note: The information expressed in this seminar is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment security. Doug Fabian is a registered investment advisor representative. The opinions expressed in the seminar are not considered personal investment advice. Consider the risks, fees, and expenses before making any change to your investment portfolio.
We’ve been talking about the European debt crisis for several months now, but we’ve recently coined the phrase “European Blind Side”. You might wonder why we’re so concerned about investors being caught off-guard by developments in Europe, so we thought we’d use an analogy from out here in California.
We see it all the time – it’s a sunny day on the beach, and people have driven in from all over to come to the ocean. Tourists and locals alike are stretched out on blankets in the sand with coolers and umbrellas, ready for a great day. However, it inevitably happens that those who aren’t as familiar with the water, or who just don’t pay attention, will place all of their beach-day accessories too close to the shoreline at low tide. When the tide starts to move in or a big set of waves appears – and they don’t even have time to react – their towels are soaked, their cell phone has gone for a swim and their beach day could very well be ruined.
We think that this is what will happen to many investors who aren’t watching Europe closely. They feel lulled to sleep by the “sunshine” of relative security and up markets here in the U.S., and may very well have their holiday ruined by a big, ugly wave from Europe. Investors who aren’t paying attention to Europe are going to be hit hard and not know what happened or why.
The moral of this little analogy is simple: pay attention and stay educated and aware. Listen to our recent teleseminar for more in-depth analysis of what’s happened in Europe and what is soon to come, and make sure that you are prepared to preserve your capital and keep your towel dry, so to speak.
This is a podcast summary. For more complete details, please listen to the full podcast here.
Lately, Monday mornings have been busy with news, and this week was no different. We are seeing a lot of change in the world right now that could change our investment portfolios, and we do our blogs and podcasts in an effort to help investors stay educated and aware. We think it’s essential to stay on top of the latest happenings and understand how it impacts the markets, so let’s a take a look at the news:
Despite what seems like an onslaught of bad economic news, we believe that growth opportunities are in front of us. We think that investor’s highest priority should be capital preservation, and we are waiting for our buying opportunities to come later this year.
This is a podcast summary. For more complete details, please listen to the full podcast here.
Here at Fabian Wealth Strategies, we’ve talked a lot lately about the European debt crisis, so you may be wondering why we would call this a “blind side”. Unfortunately, we believe that most American investors have little to no idea what is happening in Europe, and most investors are woefully unprepared for the trouble that is here and what is still to come from that sector of the world.
There are serious implications of the current and coming European economic contraction, and those have not yet been realized in the markets. This should cause concern for investors for obvious reasons: volatility is increasing and time is compressing, as the markets move faster and the swings get wilder.
As we watch the European situation, we continue to stress that investors should keep an eye on their risk exposure and have an exit strategy for their capital. We know that many U.S. investors are concerned about the U.S. debt and deficit, but the European debt and deficit is what is going to have serious implications to your portfolio in the short-term, and, because it is a less well-known problem, it has more opportunity to wreak havoc on your portfolio if you’re not careful.
So far, the European Union’s strategy for dealing with the debt crisis in Europe has been austerity (meaning getting budgets under control and reining in government hand-outs). Most of the economies in Europe are not globally competitive, and as a result, many citizens are reliant on government for many social services and basic needs, making austerity a difficult path to choose.
As a result, this weekend François Hollande won the French election over former president Nicolas Sarkozy, which means that austerity will probably once again take a back seat. Hollande is a socialist and has already promised to raise taxes to up to 75% on the wealthy, borrow more money and continue social programs for French citizens. Hollande wants the austerity strategies dictated by Germany eased in France, meaning that he is going in the opposite direction proposed by Sarkozy and Germany’s prime minister, Angela Merkel. It will be interesting to see if this new tactic works for the markets and how risk is affected by these new strategies in France.
Greece also held an election over the weekend, and the Greek people are struggling with austerity measures as well. There is fear that Greece may default on its bonds, and this is a serious hot-button, short-term issue, that we believe will really affect that markets.
The bottom-line is that even though Europe is far away and seems like something we shouldn’t worry about, the European Union is a huge factor in the global economy and the politics of public debt will make an impact on the markets. Don’t allow your portfolio to be blindsided by European troubles – if you’re not sure how to handle this uneasy market, please call us for a portfolio review at 800-391-1118
This is a podcast summary. For more complete details, please listen to the full podcast here.
Doug Fabian’s next live public speaking event will be in Las Vegas at the Money Show, where we’ll have about six different opportunities to present. Please check out moneyshow.com to register or for more information.
Don’t forget to sign up for our next teleseminar, titled: Strategies for Growth in Uncertain Times, and will be presented by Doug Fabian, on Tuesday May 8th at 1:00 p.m. Pacific (4:00 p.m. Eastern).
While this teleconference is FREE, attendance is limited, so please be sure to register HERE and reserve your spot today.
As many of you know, we have a comprehensive list of ETFs on our website. Our latest edition of the Fabian ETF report recently came out, summarizing 1200 funds and highlighting 100 new ETFs for 2012. To get a copy of our ETF report, click here.
Another great way to hear our strategies is through our exclusive teleseminars. Our next teleseminar is titled: Strategies for Growth in Uncertain Times, and will be presented by Doug Fabian, on Tuesday May 8th at 1:00 p.m. Pacific (4:00 p.m. Eastern).
If there is one statement we can all agree with – we are living in uncertain economic times. Half of the countries in Europe are in recession, China is feeling the effects of slowing global growth, and the U.S. is struggling with trillion dollar deficits that are needed to keep the economy afloat.
In what will likely be a very challenging summer for the markets, having the right strategies in place to both preserve and grow your capital is absolutely critical to your investment success. Now is the perfect time to decide how you should position your investment dollars to achieve your financial goals for the remainder of 2012.
In this special one-hour presentation, you will learn:
Doug’s three favorite growth strategies over the next three years.
How to stay ahead of inflation with your portfolio.
A global economic update and how world events can impact your money.
The latest product innovation in the exchanged traded fund world.
Plus much, much more
While this teleconference is FREE, attendance is limited, so please be sure to register HERE and reserve your spot today.
We all know the phenomenon of “sell in May and go away” in the stock market. But is that really an effective strategy? Here’s a couple of articles we read recently on the subject:
“The argument for “going away”: Over the last 12 months, investors who held to this belief made out pretty well. From May 1-November 1, 2011, the Dow lost 6.7%. From November 2011 through April 27, 2012, it gained 10.7%.
If we open a historical window – specifically, The Stock Trader’s Almanac – back to 1926, we see the S&P 500 rising 4.3% on average during May-October and gaining an average of 7.1% from November-April.”
“On Wednesday April 18th, Jeffrey Hirsch provided election year statistics for the “Worst Six Months”, May to October. The results of that research began in election year 1952 and ran through 2008. 1952 was chosen as the starting point of the study primarily because the U.S. economy (and the global economy) was substantially different prior to that year than now. From 1901 to 1951 farming made August the best performing month of the year. This is no longer the case and August is now the second worst month of the year. In response to inquiries about years prior to 1952, the table from that post has been updated to include all election years from 1904 to 2008.
By including an additional 12 election years in the table, the results differ greatly, but this was expected because, Augusts’ top-ranking performance, the roaring twenties, a Great Depression and two world wars made those years significantly different (a great understatement). In fact, “Sell in October” would have been appropriate. Prior to 1952, May-October was up 32 of 51 years with an average gain of 3.3 % while November-April was up 29 of those same years averaging a gain of 2.4%. Since 1952, November to April (as of today) has been up 47 times and down 13 with an average gain of 7.5% while May to October has been up 35 and down 25 with an average of just 0.2%.
Before deciding if “Sell in May” in this election year is in the best interest of your investment objectives consider this; since 1940, there has been only one double-digit gain from May to October and the average gain is a paltry 0.3% (excluding the best and the worst, the average is 1.2%).”
Graphic from Stock Trader's Almanac
We believe that investors should be careful to not invest or pull their capital based simply on a season, time of year or “gut feeling”. This is definitely an interesting and risky time in the markets, and it’s important to know about the trends and thought-processes – but not necessarily to follow them.
Thanks for reading our podcast summary. If you want more details on what is discussed on the blog, please listen to the full podcast here.
It seems to us that right now, the U.S. is a bullish bastion of strength around the world. International markets are all in short-term down trends, and, in contrast, the U.S. is in a bullish up-trend. This is unusual – usually all markets move in similar directions, and because of this, we think that the markets might be topping out soon.
We are also seeing increased volatility in the markets – last week was the worst-performing week of the year in the markets, but we’re still also seeing some highs. This kind of up-and-down action, plus leaders like APPL and GOOG starting to wane, tells us that the market is a very risky place right now. We think that the market is about to top out and start to correct.
Before you go on a long road trip, it’s always smart to make sure you have water, flashlight and other emergency supplies in your car. We think of your life and your money as a long road trip – we all have a destination, goals along the way and a few unexpected turns in the road, but with a good road map, some emergency supplies and a little common sense, your financial road trip can fulfill your goals and get you to your destination. We think it’s wise to be educated and prepared in life and investing.
In investing, here are a few turns in the road that might be coming up: a weakening U.S. dollar, inflation or deflation, upheaval in the bond and stock markets, or changes in the real estate market. These can all risks to your capital, or can be used to your advantage, depending on how prepared you are.
Understanding market movements is like your road map on that long car trip. You have to realize what inflation and deflation will do to your capital, and what your on-ramps are (meaning when and why you put your capital to work) for investing.
You need to know what your “off-ramp” is as well – what is your exit strategy for your investments? What is the circumstance in which you would sell your stocks or bonds and are you even aware of what you own?
These changes in the markets can be very confusing if this is not your full-time job, which is why we are here – making podcasts, writing on the blog and helping you make decisions. If you are not sure about your financial goals or you just want a second opinion, please call us at 888-300-3684. Our advisors want to help this investing road trip be a pleasant one and help you get to your destination in the best way possible.
The markets are up, and they continue to be flooded with “easy money”, which is solving some of the Eurozone’s short-term debt problems. Here in the U.S., we’re also still seeing very low interest rates, thanks to the Federal Reserve. We read some opinion pieces today, saying that 80% of stock market rally relates to “easy money” policies by Ben Bernanke and the Fed.
Here’s a few of the articles we read this week about these “easy money” strategies:
The largest asset pool that we have clients in here at Fabian Wealth Strategies is bonds, and we think that this will continue to be a safe harbor for investors, as we wait to see what happens with the European crisis and global slowdown. Remember, be careful out there, as we believe that these are risky markets and wise investors should focus on capital preservation right now.
