At the Vegas Money Show, we thought that attendance was probably 30% higher than in the past. The event was packed! It was a great time and wonderful education opportunities for investors. If you didn’t make it out to Vegas, we’ll also be at the Money Show in San Fransisco later this year, so we look forward to seeing you there.
Let’s look at the news this week: the U.S. stock market has gone straight up for the last four weeks. On average, the stock market grows 10% per year, so far in the last few months we’ve seen 15% growth. We believe that the market is euphoric and dangerously ahead of itself. For 18 Tuesdays in a row the stock market has been up, and consumer confidence is surging. There is a wealth effect going on out there, even though the economy is not truly changing for the better.
Domestically, the Obama Administration’s recent scandals: Benghazi, AP wiretapping and the IRS targeting conservative groups, have been labeled the worst week in President Obama’s five years in office. Whatever your political opinions are on these matters, it’s good practice to see how these news items affect the stock markets. So far, President Obama’s approval rating is untouched, but it’s important to keep track of these kinds of trends and news stories.
In other economic news, Wal-Mart is having a disappointing year for sales, producer prices are going down and manufacturing looks rather dim right now in the U.S. However, with the Federal Reserve’s involvement in the markets, bad news is good news, and good news is good news, so it seems as though the stock market will just keep climbing for the foreseeable future. That said, risk is high, although we do have some investment ideas for you that we’ll talking about in the days to come.
This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
When you think about your portfolio, it can be easy to lose focus on what’s important and your goals. Just because there are some scary trends out there doesn’t mean that you can’t succeed and have the life you want. As you think about your portfolio, here are some important steps to remember as you invest:
Know what you need and keep your objectives in mind.
Take inventory of your assets
Take action
Don’t approach your long-term goals with fear – stay positive and continue to be smart, consistent and motivated as you work toward your financial goals.
See Doug live this week and next, in Santa Barbara and Las Vegas, respectively. Please get more information here.
We heard a new acronym this week: TINA, which stands for “There Is No Alternative” (to equities). CNBC and other media outlets are touting the wisdom of TINA, and refusing to see any bad news for equities.
It’s interesting to note that, for the first time in 17 years, the market has not had a 5% correction from January to May. This is an incredible grind higher, but we have not seen any real opportunities to enter this market, and the fundamental instability concerns us.
The economy is not doing all that well, but, as we just mentioned, the media and the markets see negative news as a positive these days, because it means that the Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Easing policies. There’s a tremendous amount of faith in the central banks out there, and we all know that this is going to end in an ugly way.
Risk is very high right now. We are seeing unprecedented heights, particularly with the fundamental economic weakening around the world. Remember, fads (tech stocks and real estate, to jog your memory) do not always serve individual investors well, so be very cautious with your investments and know where your risk is.
This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
Even with the backdrop of weak economic news, nothing seems to bring the market down. This is because of massive central bank influence, and it’s incredible to watch these organizations around the world as they buy bonds and continue various methods of quantitative easing.
“Sell in May” strategies are in effect right now, and it’s a fascinating phenomenon to watch, so keep your eyes open for that.
The Asian markets are in the process of resetting, as geo-political and economic forces effect those markets. As we look at the next three quarters of 2013, as long as the world doesn’t enter a global recession, we’ll likely get great buying opportunities in Asia in the months to come.
In contrast, the U.S. market has not reset itself. It’s not in a good position for buyers, because volatility and risk is very high, and we think that a reset is on its way – and that will be a great opportunity to inject capital into the market.
We disagree with this article, though, since we don’t believe that the U.S. economy can handle higher interest rates, and the Federal Reserve can’t afford to raise interest rates, which would hurt bond holders. It doesn’t make sense to sell bonds and buy stocks, particularly when looking for long-term money.
Recently, we sold emerging market bonds and high-yield bonds and purchased more high-grade corporate bonds. If we get a correction in equities, it will hurt the more speculative bonds, and we want to be prepared for that. Overall, we believe that bonds are in good shape and that there is no bond bubble as of today.
As always, if you have questions about the state of your portfolio or market action, email questions or concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com.
This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
There’s a lot of news out there about what’s happening in the world markets and here in the U.S., so here’s a round-up of news and views on what’s going on out there:
If you’d like to find out more about how we can help you and your money face upcoming challenges, act now by listening to the Monday Morning Market Outlook podcast, and then by giving us a call at 800-391-1118.
As always, email any investment questions or concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com. We want to help you make the best possible decision for your portfolio. This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
The U.S. economy is still hanging in there – the best economy in the world amongst developed countries. This is the neighborhood that everyone wants to be in, and the U.S. is still the world leader, so we are still attracting capital. Despite that, we believe that there will be better opportunities to put money to work in U.S. market later this year, now is not the best time for investors. Emerging market opportunities might come up faster than U.S. investing, so keep an eye on that and listen to our podcast for more information in the coming weeks.
Also, bonds still doing OK. Keep an eye on bond market, but for now its doing well. Remember that bond market is safe from any big changes right now, because we cannot afford high interest rates at this time here in the U.S.
If you’d like to find out more about how we can help you and your money face upcoming challenges, act now by listening to the Monday Morning Market Outlook podcast, and then by giving us a call at 800-391-1118.
As always, email any investment questions or concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com. We want to help you make the best possible decision for your portfolio. This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
The stock market is impressive right now, and we understand that investors are afraid of being left out. Better opportunities to enter the market are coming, and now is not the time to put capital to work – in our opinion.
Market crashes are once-in-a-generation events – good for headlines, but not typical. Remember that markets are psychological, not logical. You can live with lost opportunity much easier than you can live with lost capital. We think that you should be more concerned about lost capital than anything else right now. Have a sell plan and protect yourself against changes in the market.
(For more information on this topic, check out our April issue of Successful Investing.)
This week, we got an email from a client, asking about taking on more risk in their portfolio. We believe that this is not the right time to be taking on more risk. The markets are risky right now and there is a lot of uncertainty out there.
However, this email got us thinking. Investors have a tendency to get into the market too late. For instance, many people got into real estate market too late in the recent boom a few years ago, which had unfortunate consequences in their portfolio. Here are some other common “unprepared investor” problems: They don’t know when to sell, they try to commit to an investment for the long-term and they sell at worst possible time when they get scared. In short, most unprepared investors get in too late and out too soon.
Don’t allow your portfolio to be another statistic of unprepared investing. This is not when you want to make a serious commitment to risk assets. Be careful out there, be safe and be prepared.
As always, email any investment questions or concerns to askdoug(at)dougfabian(dot)com. We want to help you make the best possible decision for your portfolio. This is a podcast summary. For more information, please listen to the entire broadcast here.
